王克等：Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 ◦C targets
National climate targets must be decomposed into key areas to guide mitigation actions. This paper presents a comparative study of China's low-carbon transition pathways at the sectoral level under the nationally determined contribution (NDC) and 2 °C targets, using the energy system model and detailed sectoral information. The results show that each sector plays different roles in terms of emission trends, mitigation potentials, technology roadmaps, investment requirements, and mitigation costs. The power sector is expected to contribute around 50% of the total mitigation. The industry sector has better cost-effective performance, with high mitigation potential and low investment requirement. By contrast, the transport and power sectors account for around 90% of total investment demand. The building and transport sectors have substantial mitigation opportunities that can be realized through technologies with negative mitigation costs. Conversely, the industry sector faces challenges in promoting carbon capture and storage, which has the highest mitigation cost. Compared with the sectoral transition pathways under the NDC target, the 2 °C scenario requires a rapid near-term decarbonization of the power sector and additional emission reductions in end-use sectors. This decarbonization is possible through comprehensive deployment of advanced low-carbon technologies as well as measures that increase investments in low-carbon infrastructure and decrease investments in fossil fuel-based technologies in the power and transport sectors. Therefore, it is important to thoroughly understand the sectoral transition pathways under different climate targets in order to coordinate inter-sectoral actions and resources in a cost-effective manner.
Low-carbon transition; Sectoral comparison; Nationally determined contribution; 2 ◦C target; China; Energy system model
原载于 Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (SCI, Q1, 2020 Impact Factor = 12.110)
国家气候目标必须分解到关键领域来指导减缓行动。本文利用能源系统模型和详细的行业信息，在国家自主贡献（NDC）和 2°C目标下，在部门层面对中国低碳转型路径进行了比较研究。结果表明，每个部门在排放趋势、减缓潜力、技术路线图、投资要求和减缓成本方面存在差异。预计电力部门减排达到总减排量的 50% ，工业部门有更好的成本效益表现，具有较高的缓解潜力和较低的投资要求。相比之下，交通和电力部门的投资需求约占总投资需求的 90%。建筑和交通部门能够通过负排放技术实现较大的减排潜力，而工业部门的负排放技术碳捕集和封存要求较高的减缓成本。与 NDC 目标下的部门转型路径相比，2°C 情景需要电力部门在近期快速脱碳，并在终端部门进行额外的减排。通过全面部署先进的低碳技术，增加低碳基础设施投资，减少电力和交通部门对化石燃料技术投资的措施，能够实现2°C减排目标。综上，必须了解不同气候目标下的分部门转型路径，以便以具有成本效益可行性的方式协调部门间行动和资源。