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李传忠:基于分析综合评价模型的最优碳税

时间:2019-06-04

主讲人简介:


李传忠,瑞典乌普萨拉大学经济学教授,瑞典皇家科学院Beijer生态经济研究所兼职教授。李传忠教授主要从事环境与资源经济学,动态福利经济学,可持续发展理论,生态系统弹性及临界点经济学等方面研究工作。他的研究成果主要发表在Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Environmental and Resource Economics, Ecological Economics, Land Economics, Economics Letters, Sustainability, Environment and Development Economics等期刊。他还曾担任瑞典议会生态系统服务评估委员会和瑞典财政部环境研究专家组的专家。 他的研究项目主要由瑞典环境保护局,瑞典国际开发合作署和瑞典研究理事会FORMAS资助。

讲座主题:

基于分析综合评价模型的最优碳税

内容简介:

The DICE model developed by Nordhaus (Nobel laureate in economics 2018) is one of the best-known computer-based integrated assessment models on climate changes. With a few simplifying assumptions on the model, Golosov et al. (2014) derived an analytic formula for the optimal carbon tax, which is proportional to GDP up to a constant factor.  The formula has been extended later with climate uncertainty and catastrophic damages etc. being taken into account. However, most of these contributions rely on the same economic assumptions with a logarithmic preference, Cobb-Douglas production technology and full depreciation of capital. This paper generalizes Golosov et al. (2014) by relaxing all these restrictive assumptions. We adopt the cumulative climate response (CCR) function developed by Matthews et al. (2009) and Matthews et al. (2012) to represent the atmospheric temperature dynamics. The CCR function describes the direct relationship between anthropogenic carbon emissions and increases in global mean temperature that can be readily estimated from historical data. In an optimal control framework, we show that the optimal carbon tax rate depends on a science-based CCR, a relative climate damage parameter, and the harmonic mean of growth-adjusted consumption rates of discount. We test our new formula with the DICE2016 model and provide an application to the real world economy beyond any integrated modeling framework.

时间和地点:

65日(星期三) 14:00-15:30

明德商学楼0207



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